Wednesday, September 26, 2007

Indian stock market index Sensex at 17000 - however, you wonder why your portfolio is not following suit !

The T20 world cup has been won, people are ecstatic and roads in Mumbai have been suitably jammed at this afternoon's victory parade. Investment gurus think there is a rising tide of good cheer what with the world cup and Sensex at 17,000. Some of the braver ones talk of 19,000 !

You must be feeling rich if you have stayed with the stock market roller coaster over the last few years. On the other hand, you may be surprised that your portfolio does not necessarily reflect the full impact of this wonderful turn of events.

Some observations, based on market commentators' views:

1. There is a view that foreign institutional investors (FII) are throwing money at emerging markets like India to get away from the sub-prime mortgage mess and lowering interest rates in the US. As we have seen before, this flood can come and go at reasonably short notice ...

2. Rally has been led by large cap stocks this time around. Good for you if you were mirroring the large caps in your portfolio. However, the last rally was mid cap based ! Even better, if you had both sectors covered - if not, you are probably hurting in some areas ...

3. Some suggestion that markets show an overbought position ...

4. Let us get to the 'other hand' of this story. Bulls mention corporate earnings continue to grow robustly, inflation (as measured officially) has been reined in and therefore an ongoing growth in the stock market cannot be ruled out (remember the pundits who talk of 19000) ...

If like many of us, you also cannot time the markets, then a few thoughts for you:

1. Invest on fundamentals of the companies

2. Stay with them for a reasonably long period if you like the firms' business, their management strength and growth story

3. Ride short term price gyrations - provided the firms continue to do well

4. Remain diversified in your portfolio mix.

If you are a novice in stock markets, then consider hiring a professional portfolio manager and / or devour analyst reports regularly so that you can take measured actions.

Good luck !

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2 Comments:

At September 26, 2007 at 4:21 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

How can we use ratios like EPS, PE or PEG to make the choice more objective

 
At September 30, 2007 at 8:23 AM , Blogger Indian Finance Commentator said...

These ratios, in particular P/E and Market/Book value compared to industry peers, can give a sense of how a stock is valued relative to peers. However, you need to assess qualitative factors involved in a company's management, operations and growth projections also before being able to assess whether a stcok is fairly valued and hence a good buy for the medium to long run.

 

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